Celtics escape Bulls in OT; Boston one win away from advancing
Basketball Betting Lines
04/28/2009 -
Boston, MA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - In a series that has now featured four
overtimes, Paul Pierce's shot went in and a bloodied Brad Miller's free throws
didn't.
Pierce's jumper with 3.4 seconds left in overtime gave Boston the lead then
the veteran Miller missed two free throws with two ticks left, as the
Boston Celtics claimed a 106-104 victory over the Chicago Bulls and a 3-2
series advantage heading back to the Windy City.
Pierce made the shot when it counted, while Miller couldn't convert moments
after a hard foul from Rajon Rondo left him bloodied and dazed.
It was just another chapter in what is quickly becoming one of the NBA's best
playoff series in years.
Pierce scored 26 points to go along with seven rebounds. Rondo tallied a game-
best 28 points with 11 assists and eight rebounds, while Glen Davis chimed in
with 21 points and six boards.
Kendrick Perkins notched a double-double with 16 points and 19 rebounds for
the Celtics, who can close out the first round best-of-seven in Chicago on
Friday.
Ben Gordon, playing with a balky hamstring, scored a team-high 26 points,
while Joakim Noah added 11 points and a team-best 17 boards. Derrick Rose's
stat line was again a mixture with 14 points, eight rebounds and six assists
but also a game-high six turnovers.
Rose and Rondo exchanged quick drives and baskets to keep the Bulls in front
by two points at 91-89 with 1:40 to go. Pierce tied the game moments later and
Rose committed a turnover on the baseline with 55.2 seconds left.
After an empty Celtics trip, Gordon took what looked like an ill-advised shot
with 16.6 seconds left, but the right wing jumper found the bottom of the net.
Pierce answered by squaring up John Salmons and sticking a mid-range bucket
with 10.5 ticks left.
Gordon missed a game-winning attempt from the high left wing, sending the game
to overtime -- a common occurrence in a series that features a double-overtime
Game 4 thriller and a Game 1 overtime tilt.
Boston was in the driver's seat before Tony Allen committed a foul on Gordon
while he attempted a difficult three-pointer that may not have even been on
the floor -- replays showed Gordon's back foot may have grazed the sideline
before the foul.
Gordon made all three foul shots with 27.3 ticks left to tie the game at
104-104, but it was again Pierce who slowly worked his way into the lane on
Salmons and buried a jumper with 3.4 seconds left.
Chicago called time and intended to use Miller as the screener for either Rose
or Gordon. The big man's screen created a caravan of defenders to the
streaking Bulls guards, leaving Miller open at the top of the key. The in-
bounds pass came his way, and the ensuing drive resulted in a swipe across the
face from Rondo.
Miller's lip leaked blood and his head possibly cobwebs after a nasty fall to
the floor. He recovered, but didn't look like an 85 percent foul shooter on
this trip. Miller missed long on the first, then missed the second on purpose,
but it didn't hit the rim and Boston took possession, and despite two missed
foul shots on the other end, the victory and series momentum.
The Bulls couldn't toss the ball into the Boston Harbor early, but energy on
the perimeter and length inside negated the poor shooting start and kept the
Celtics at arm's length.
Boston scored nine of the game's first 12 points and Rose missed his first
four shots, not a recipe to stem the early emotional tide of the Celtics.
Gordon showed he could play on the balky hamstring, and his replacement
Kirk Hinrich stepped in earlier than usual with a three to bring the Bulls
within 17-15.
Chicago continued to claw back at Boston's push and Tyrus Thomas' putback
again cut the deficit to two points at 23-21 after 12 minutes of game action.
The Bulls tied the game three times, the last on another Hinrich bucket,
before finally edging in front, 40-38, on a nifty hesitation-and-dash to the
rim by Salmons. Hinrich's ensuing layup capped an 8-0 stretch for a four-point
lead.
Hinrich's 14-point first half catapulted the Bulls to a 47-44 lead at the
half. He scored 19 for the game, basically carrying a two-man Bulls bench to a
24-5 scoring edge on the game.
Gordon missed six straight shots at one point while still firing in the third,
but his three-pointer broke the dry spell and gave the Bulls a 65-64 lead.
Hinrich added a trey on the next possession and two free throws with 1.1 ticks
left in the stanza, all part of a 15-8 quarter-closing spurt for a 70-66
advantage.
Chicago started white-knuckle time with a big corner three from an unlikely
source, Miller, two free throws from Gordon and a highlight-reel high-low
bounce feed from Miller to Noah, putting the finishing touches on nine
successive points for a 77-66 edge.
An Allen three and Rondo layup capped a furious 16-6 rally to draw the Celtics
within 83-82. Salmons answered with a three, but Pierce connected on two free
throws, and the game remained close the rest of the way.
Game Notes
Thomas scored 12 points with eight rebounds for Chicago...The Bulls shot 40
percent from the floor, but made 27-of-32 free throws...Boston connected on
48.8 percent of its shots, but allowed the Bulls to grab 14 offensive
rebounds..The game included 15 ties and 13 lead changes...Boston dominated the
interior, scoring 54 points in the paint to just 32 for Chicago.
<< Marlins rally past Mets, snap seven-game skid
Flushing, NY (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Jorge Cantu belted a pair of home runs,
including a three-run shot during a four-run seventh inning, as the Florida
Marlins snapped a seven-game skid with a 7-4 come-from-behind win over the New
York Me
<< Saunders solid on mound as Angels top O's
Baltimore, MD (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Howie Kendrick hit a two-run homer and Kendry
Morales finished with a pair of doubles and two RBI as the Angels got by the
Baltimore Orioles, 7-5, in the opener of a brief two- game set at Camden
Yards.
<< Astros continue winning ways in Cincinnati
Cincinnati, OH (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Kazuo Matsui went 3-for-5 with two runs
driven in and as many scored, as the Astros won in Cincinnati for the 11th
straight time with an 8-3 shellacking of the Reds in the middle test of a
three-g
<< 'Canes storm Brodeur in closing 80 seconds, shock Devils in Game 7
Newark, NJ (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Jussi Jokinen and Eric Staal scored 48 seconds
apart in the final 80 seconds of regulation to lead the Carolina Hurricanes to
a stunning 4-3 victory over the New Jersey Devils in the decisive Game 7 of
their E
<< Howard leads Magic to Game 5 win over Sixers
Orlando, FL (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Dwight Howard scored 24 points and pulled down
a playoff career-high 24 rebounds, as Orlando beat Philadelphia, 91-78, to
take the pivotal Game 5 of their Eastern Conference quarterfinal series.
Rashard L
Yankees use 10-run inning to down Tigers >>
Detroit, MI (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Phil Hughes was stellar in his return to the
majors and Jose Molina hit a grand slam as part of a 10-run seventh inning, as
the New York Yankees snapped their four-game slide in convincing fasion with
an 11-0
Cruz's hit lifts Rangers over A's >>
Arlington, TX (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Nelson Cruz hit the go-ahead RBI single in
the eighth inning and the Texas Rangers took advantage of a Jason Giambi
fielding error to beat Oakland, 5-4, in the opener of a three-game series.
Cruz an
Hernandez stellar in eight strong as M's gain DH split >>
Chicago, IL (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Felix Hernandez was dominant in striking out
nine over eight scoreless innings, as Seattle posted a 9-1 victory in Game 2
of a doubleheader with the White Sox at U.S. Cellular Field.
Hernandez (4-0) scat
Weeks' homer lifts Brewers over Pirates >>
Milwaukee, WI (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Rickie Weeks' two-run home run in the sixth
frame proved to be the difference, as Milwaukee continued its mastery of
Pittsburgh with a 6-5 victory in the middle test of a three-game series.
Weeks and
Blue Jays crush Royals >>
Kansas City, MO (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Scott Richmond pitched seven strong innings
while Vernon Wells drove in three runs, as the Toronto Blue Jays defeated the
Kansas City Royals, 8-1, in the continuation of a four-game series at Kauffman
Stadium
There is little doubt that the NFL is where the sportsbooks see the most action and also make the most loot. The NFL possesses betting friendly attributes that are unlike any of the other major sports. First off, there are relatively few teams to keep track of in comparison to college football betting or college basketball. And second, these teams play only once a week which makes staying on top of the results much easier than it is in the daily leagues such as the NBA, NHL, and MLB.
These dynamics, along with the sheer excitement of watching and wagering on football, brings more square action to the table than any of the other sports. Almost every Tom, Dick and Harry in America is an NFL expert in their own mind and that is precisely what the oddsmakers prey upon.
Understanding who bets the games is just as important as understanding which teams are playing the games. The market at times will dictate price, which in the betting world means the oddsmakers cater to the public rather than reality.
Knowing the market inside and out is the basis of our NFL handicapping model. That is, our approach to NFL handicapping is of the contrarian or value seeking variety. We will at times place a higher premium on public sentiment than on the fundamentals. This strategy dictates playing dogs and/or lesser competent teams, or teams the public wants nothing to do with. Or better yet, fading the teams the oddsmakers want you to bet on.
Along these same lines, we carry a similar notion that the first week of the NFL season presents one of the ripest opportunities for the astute gambler. This conflicts with conventional wisdom and/or handicapping lore, as most would say it is better to watch a few games and assess each team before jumping in with both feet. That’s all fine and dandy, but there are some interesting trends to exploit in Week 1 and we’d be remiss to ignore them. Let us quickly explain.
Gone are the days of dynasties, where the same core players stay intact and dominate the league year after year. Free agency and player movements can completely transform teams from one season to the next. In today’s parity-driven NFL, poor teams typically don’t stay poor for all that long and excellent teams must constantly reinvent themselves to stay on top.
The temptation might be to assume prior year results are the best indicator of who is going to cover in Week 1. To Joe Public, playoff teams from the prior season, home teams, favorites, and so one, look even more enticing than usual since there is no current season performance to judge them against. But the question begs: are the oddsmakers setting a trap?
To find the answer, we culled five years worth of Week 1 NFL data. As always, all of our analysis is done from an ATS perspective. The purpose here is to share the most important angles we unearthed and try to explain the logic behind them. So strap on your helmet, throw on your shoulder pads, and follow our lead as we expose some rare holes in the oddsmakers’ line of defense.
Home vs. Away Teams
Over the past five seasons, NFL home teams in Week 1 are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). This of course implies that roadies are a 58 percent winning proposition during this time. The public at large has a tendency to overvalue home teams and this is especially true in Week 1 when there is no current season data to make predictions from. Consequently, the oddsmakers almost surely shade the home teams, by and large making road teams the choice for the value player.
Conclusion: Look long and hard at road teams first when handicapping the opening week.
Price ranges
Favorites are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent) in the opening week over the past five NFL seasons (Coincidentally, home teams hold the same ATS record as noted above). This means that underdogs bark at a 58 percent clip. Mid-range favorites performed the worst among our specified price ranges. In particular, favorites priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 are only 8-15 ATS (35 percent) during this time.
The same basic pattern holds true when looking at home favorites (road favorites gravitate towards a 50 percent mean). Home favorites indeed are just 21-32-3 ATS (40 percent) in the first week of NFL action since 1999. Again, mid-range favorites are similarly the poorest performers when we look at home teams. Consider that home teams priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 have stumbled to a 6-13 ATS (32 percent) mark in Week 1 games the past five seasons.
Conclusion: Like home teams, favorites and particularly mid-range favorites are generally overvalued in Week 1.
Playoff teams
It might surprise you to learn that playoff teams from the prior year versus non-playoff teams from the prior year are a mere 16-23-3 (41 percent) ATS in NFL Week 1 games over the past five seasons. Home teams which made the playoffs versus teams which did not make the playoffs from the prior season drop to a meager 7-14-1 ATS (33 percent) during this time.
Why are playoff teams, and in particular those at home, such bad bets the past five openers? Just as the case with home teams and with favorites, oddsmakers intentionally overprice playoff teams in the opening week to compensate for the public’s propensity to over bet them.
This theory holds true just looking at straight-up records from the past season as well. That is, home teams with winning records from the prior season vs. road teams with losing records from the prior season are just 8-13 ATS in Week 1 NFL games since 1999.
Conclusion: Playoff teams from the prior year and in particular, home playoff teams, are overvalued in Week 1 NFL games.
Scoring defense and scoring offense
Do good defenses and for that matter good offenses from the prior season fare better against the number the following year in Week 1 games? Well, sort of. Generally speaking, teams with a solid offense or defense from the prior season tend to do well in the opening week so long as they are on the road. As a host, however, the best offenses and best defenses from the prior year tend to be overvalued in Week 1.
Consider that the top five scoring defenses (i.e. points allowed) from the prior season are a nice 8-4 ATS (66 percent) on the road in NFL openers the past five seasons. Meanwhile, the top five scoring defenses from the prior season are just 3-8-2 ATS (27 percent) as a host in Week 1 during the same time period.
There is no discernable advantage or disadvantage for teams with a top five scoring offense (i.e. points scored) in Week 1 games. However, when we look at scoring offenses from the bottom up (isolating the five worst offenses from the prior season), the results are rather interesting. In particular, teams ranked in the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are 9-4-1 ATS (69 percent) when on the road in Week 1.
The logic is simply that the public perception is a poor scoring offensive unit from the year prior will have little chance of winning on the road in Week 1. In turn, the oddsmakers compensate for this perception and these poor offensive teams from the year prior carry extra line value on the Week 1 trail.
Conclusion: Teams with top-ranked defenses from the previous season are good bets when playing on the road, but poor bets when playing at home. Also, teams ranked among the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are generally a good value in their Week 1 openers, provided they are playing on the road.
Scoring margin
An exceedingly straightforward way of measuring scoring offense and scoring defense together as a whole is to look at a team's “margin." Margin is simply scoring offense minus scoring defense, which is a fairly clear-cut measure of how a team does on both sides of the ball. Typically, the higher the margin, the better the team.
In this regard, it might seem counterintuitive that teams carrying the higher margin from the prior season in week one matchups are merely 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). Furthermore, road teams with the higher margin are 14-20-6 ATS (41 percent), while home teams with the higher margin are 17-22-1 ATS (44 percent). Once again, these results line up with the theory that better teams from the prior year are overvalued come opening day of the following season.
Conclusion: “Better” teams, which often boast a higher margin than their opponent, are overvalued the following season in NFL openers.
In sum
Oddsmakers cater NFL betting lines to match public perception and also to bait the public into poor bets. The temptation to use the prior year’s success as a buy sign for how a team will perform against the spread in Week 1 of the following season is an enormous trap.
The fact is, isolating road teams, road dogs, non-playoff teams vs. playoff teams, teams with a losing record or low margin vs. playoff teams or ones with a high margin from the previous year is where the line value resides. Quite simply, taking the road less traveled is your surest path to NFL betting profits.
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Huskers' Lucky hospitalized for undisclosed reason
LINCOLN, Neb. -- Nebraska running back Marlon Lucky was hospitalized Monday for undisclosed reasons after Lincoln police responded to a call at his residence.
The Nebraska athletic department said in a release Monday that Lucky was admitted Sunday night.
MySportsbook.com has the Cornhuskers listed at +2500 to win the BCS National Championship odds.
A nursing supervisor at the hospital said all questions about Lucky were being referred to the athletic department. The athletic department said there would be no further comment from the department or Lucky's family.
A Lincoln Police spokesman said officers responded to a call at Lucky's residence 11:30 p.m. Sunday. The spokesman said he didn't know Lucky's condition at the time he was taken to the hospital.
Lucky, from North Hollywood, Calif., started six games last season as a sophomore and was the team's second-leading rusher, with 728 yards and six touchdowns. He also caught 32 passes for 383 yards. He averaged 19.1 yards on eight kickoff returns.
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Bonds nearly hits HR 751, SF wins
4 and drove in
a pair of runs, and Barry Bonds nearly hit homer No. 751 as San Francisco beat
1, in the middle contest of three at AT&T Park.
6) allowed five hits and one run over 6 2/3 innings, fanning
eight and walking three.
game slide.
Bonds, who came within five homers of Hank Aaron's record on Friday, went
1 with three walks, an RBI double and scored twice. The double ...
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