McNabb, Eagles answer critics with different kind of outburst
Football Betting Lines
09/25/2007 -
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - On the day the franchise was recognizing its 75th season of
existence, the Philadelphia Eagles paid a fitting tribute by putting forth an
offensive performance for the ages.
After being stuck in neutral during back-to-back losses to start the season,
the Philadelphia offense was utterly unstoppable in Sunday's encounter with
the high-powered Detroit Lions. The Eagles rolled up 473 total yards in the
first half, the most by an NFL team in an opening 30 minutes since such
statistics were first kept in 1991, and scored touchdowns on their first five
possessions en route to a 56-21 rout.
The only things more offensive than Philadelphia's prolific scoring eruption,
the team's highest regular-season point total since 1953, were the hideous
light blue-and-gold throwback uniforms the Eagles wore during the game to
commemorate their 75th anniversary.
Philadelphia had scored a combined 25 points in its recent setbacks to Green
Bay and Washington. The Eagles had surpassed that number less than three
minutes into the second quarter on Sunday, when quarterback Donovan McNabb and
wide receiver Kevin Curtis teamed up for the second of three touchdown
connections between the pair.
The Eagles actually had a shot at opening the game with seven consecutive
touchdown drives, having marched to the Detroit four-yard line on their sixth
series before McNabb lost a fumble after being sacked by the Lions' Corey
Smith.
"The first touchdown, I wouldn't say it was easy, but it was to the point that
we felt so confident that we knew we could do it again," said guard Shawn
Andrews of the offense's execution.
Curtis amassed an eye-opening 205 receiving yards before halftime, tying an
NFL record set by Buffalo's Lee Evans last season, and wound up with career-
bests of 221 yards and 11 catches. Brian Westbrook was equally as prolific, as
the playmaking running back compiled 111 receiving yards, another 110 on the
ground, and scored three times before being removed in the third quarter after
bruising his ribs.
Sunday's win wasn't just a necessary rise to the occasion by the Eagles, but
also a sweet sense of redemption for a maligned McNabb. The star signal-caller
had come under heavy fire in the days leading up to the game, partly because
of his early-season struggles under center but mostly for some ill-timed
controversial comments he made regarding the scrutiny that African-American
quarterbacks receive.
McNabb received a smattering of boos from an unforgiving home crowd to begin
the game. He ended it with a perfect quarterback rating of 158.3 after
throwing for 381 yards and four touchdowns on 21-of-26 passing. The five-time
Pro Bowl honoree completed 18 straight attempts at one point.
"I felt the same way in the previous two games, it's just that things were
just a little off," said McNabb in reference to the knee injury that cut short
his 2006 campaign. "If it was timing or whatever it may be to get adjusted
back to the game situation, I think today was just that time where we felt
that we were right on point with everything in the passing game. I saw
everything in the previous weeks that I saw today and it was just (better)
execution."
SACK PARTY
The Philadelphia defense allowed its share of yards through the air to the
talented Lions, but a ferocious and relentless pass rush enabled the Eagles to
limit the damage and compensate for a secondary depleted by injuries. The unit
brought Detroit quarterback Jon Kitna to the turf nine times, the club's
highest total since it registered a franchise-record 11 sacks at Dallas on
October 4, 1991. End Trent Cole led the charge with a career-high three sacks,
with second-year tackle Brodrick Bunkley and situational specialist Juqua
Thomas each recording a pair of takedowns of Kitna.
"(The Eagles coaches) pretty much put (the onus) on us at the beginning of the
week," said end Jevon Kearse. "Coach (Jim) Johnson told us we are going to
match up with their receivers, no matter what. It was up to the defensive line
to get to the quarterback and stop them from throwing the ball."
SHORTHANDED SECONDARY
The defensive backfield was without its top two players on Sunday, as free
safety and emotional leader Brian Dawkins was inactive after suffering a neck
stinger in last week's loss to Washington and cornerback Lito Sheppard missed
his second straight game due to a left knee sprain. The Lions were able to
exploit Philadelphia's weakened secondary, as Kitna threw for a personal-best
446 yards and two scores, including a 91-yard hookup with standout wide
receiver Roy Williams in the second quarter.
On the flip side, the Eagles were able to effectively neutralize Detroit's
ground attack, although the Lions virtually abandoned the run game after
falling well behind early. Philadelphia yielded only 39 rushing yards and an
average of 3.3 yards per rush.
Valued reserve Quentin Mikell made his first career start in Dawkins' absence,
and had one of the Eagles' nine sacks of Kitna, along with three tackles and a
fumble recovery. Veteran William James assumed Sheppard's normal position of
left cornerback, with Joselio Hanson slotted into the nickel role.
SURGERY FOR SMITH
The Eagles are expected to be without tight end L.J. Smith for about a month
after the fifth-year pro underwent surgery last week to clean out scar tissue
surrounding his groin. Smith has been hampered by a groin strain since
training camp and had a limited role in Philadelphia's first two games,
catching only four passes for a total of 26 yards.
It's the second surgical procedure in four months for Smith, who had a
procedure to repair a sports hernia in late May.
"The one good thing about this (last) surgery is they didn't have to fix
anything," said team head athletic trainer Rick Burkholder. "You don't have to
wait for anything to really heal. You just have to wait for all that swelling
and everything to go down and let him get back to function where he can play
football at a normal level."
RIVALRY RENEWED
The Eagles will dive back into divisional play with a key Sunday night road
showdown with the NFC East rival New York Giants this coming weekend. The
teams will be meeting for the first time since Philadelphia handed New York a
23-20 defeat in the wild card round of last January's NFC Playoffs.
Philadelphia has also won three of its last four matchups with the Giants at
the Meadowlands, including a 36-22 decision back in December. New York will be
returning home with some momentum, however, after rallying for a much-needed
24-17 win at Washington on Sunday.
<< Gutty win puts Giants in far better situation
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - After their defense was able to get its act together right
at the time it was needed most, a New York Giants' season that was teetering
on the edge of disaster has quickly been given a whole new outlook.
While Sunday's muc
<< Seahawks' Burleson earns redemption
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Apparently, Seattle Seahawks quarterback Matt Hasselbeck
carries around a dictionary with him at all times. How else would he have
known that confidence can be defined as having trust or belief in the
reliability of a person
<< Painful loss reveals Redskins' shortcomings
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - While the promise generated by a 2-0 start can't be
destroyed by just one loss, the Washington Redskins probably can't help but
think of what could have been following Sunday's battle with the rival New
York Giants.
Washi
<< Bengals' Need Sandbags to Stem the Tide
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - A season that began with such promise for the Cincinnati
Bengals now simply promises to be an uphill climb.
The team's 24-21 loss at Seattle on Sunday may have actually been something of
a moral victory, in that Cincinnati
<< Cards still waiting for the student to become the master
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - While Matt Leinart is without a doubt the Arizona
Cardinals' version of Luke Skywalker, the club is still unsure what role Kurt
Warner occupies.
Is he more like Yoda, a Jedi Master on the elderly side who can't really
bat
Cowboys move to head of NFC class >>
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - After a pair of very impressive victories to begin their
2007 campaign, the Dallas Cowboys had clearly staked a claim for early-season
superiority in the NFC. But the only way a team can legitimately call itself
the best is b
Report: Griese to replace Grossman >>
Lake Forest, IL (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Brian Griese will replace Rex Grossman at
starting quarterback for the Chicago Bears' game against the Detroit Lions
next Sunday.
According to the Chicago Tribune, a source on the team stated tha
Panthers have cause for concern despite good start >>
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Let's begin with the good news regarding the Carolina
Panthers. The team has won two of its first three games and currently owns a
share of first place in an NFC South division that's shaping up to be the
weakest in the NFL.
49ers get blanketed by the curtain >>
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - In a battle between a pair of five-time Super Bowl
champions this past Sunday, one team did what they always do best, while
another struggled to live up to shadow cast by years past.
Of course, I'm talking about the Pittsb
Saints CB David out indefinitely >>
New Orleans, LA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - New Orleans Saints starting cornerback
Jason David will be out for an indefinite period of time with a fractured left
forearm, the team announced on Tuesday.
David got hurt during the Saints' 31-14 los
There is little doubt that the NFL is where the sportsbooks see the most action and also make the most loot. The NFL possesses betting friendly attributes that are unlike any of the other major sports. First off, there are relatively few teams to keep track of in comparison to college football betting or college basketball. And second, these teams play only once a week which makes staying on top of the results much easier than it is in the daily leagues such as the NBA, NHL, and MLB.
These dynamics, along with the sheer excitement of watching and wagering on football, brings more square action to the table than any of the other sports. Almost every Tom, Dick and Harry in America is an NFL expert in their own mind and that is precisely what the oddsmakers prey upon.
Understanding who bets the games is just as important as understanding which teams are playing the games. The market at times will dictate price, which in the betting world means the oddsmakers cater to the public rather than reality.
Knowing the market inside and out is the basis of our NFL handicapping model. That is, our approach to NFL handicapping is of the contrarian or value seeking variety. We will at times place a higher premium on public sentiment than on the fundamentals. This strategy dictates playing dogs and/or lesser competent teams, or teams the public wants nothing to do with. Or better yet, fading the teams the oddsmakers want you to bet on.
Along these same lines, we carry a similar notion that the first week of the NFL season presents one of the ripest opportunities for the astute gambler. This conflicts with conventional wisdom and/or handicapping lore, as most would say it is better to watch a few games and assess each team before jumping in with both feet. That’s all fine and dandy, but there are some interesting trends to exploit in Week 1 and we’d be remiss to ignore them. Let us quickly explain.
Gone are the days of dynasties, where the same core players stay intact and dominate the league year after year. Free agency and player movements can completely transform teams from one season to the next. In today’s parity-driven NFL, poor teams typically don’t stay poor for all that long and excellent teams must constantly reinvent themselves to stay on top.
The temptation might be to assume prior year results are the best indicator of who is going to cover in Week 1. To Joe Public, playoff teams from the prior season, home teams, favorites, and so one, look even more enticing than usual since there is no current season performance to judge them against. But the question begs: are the oddsmakers setting a trap?
To find the answer, we culled five years worth of Week 1 NFL data. As always, all of our analysis is done from an ATS perspective. The purpose here is to share the most important angles we unearthed and try to explain the logic behind them. So strap on your helmet, throw on your shoulder pads, and follow our lead as we expose some rare holes in the oddsmakers’ line of defense.
Home vs. Away Teams
Over the past five seasons, NFL home teams in Week 1 are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). This of course implies that roadies are a 58 percent winning proposition during this time. The public at large has a tendency to overvalue home teams and this is especially true in Week 1 when there is no current season data to make predictions from. Consequently, the oddsmakers almost surely shade the home teams, by and large making road teams the choice for the value player.
Conclusion: Look long and hard at road teams first when handicapping the opening week.
Price ranges
Favorites are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent) in the opening week over the past five NFL seasons (Coincidentally, home teams hold the same ATS record as noted above). This means that underdogs bark at a 58 percent clip. Mid-range favorites performed the worst among our specified price ranges. In particular, favorites priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 are only 8-15 ATS (35 percent) during this time.
The same basic pattern holds true when looking at home favorites (road favorites gravitate towards a 50 percent mean). Home favorites indeed are just 21-32-3 ATS (40 percent) in the first week of NFL action since 1999. Again, mid-range favorites are similarly the poorest performers when we look at home teams. Consider that home teams priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 have stumbled to a 6-13 ATS (32 percent) mark in Week 1 games the past five seasons.
Conclusion: Like home teams, favorites and particularly mid-range favorites are generally overvalued in Week 1.
Playoff teams
It might surprise you to learn that playoff teams from the prior year versus non-playoff teams from the prior year are a mere 16-23-3 (41 percent) ATS in NFL Week 1 games over the past five seasons. Home teams which made the playoffs versus teams which did not make the playoffs from the prior season drop to a meager 7-14-1 ATS (33 percent) during this time.
Why are playoff teams, and in particular those at home, such bad bets the past five openers? Just as the case with home teams and with favorites, oddsmakers intentionally overprice playoff teams in the opening week to compensate for the public’s propensity to over bet them.
This theory holds true just looking at straight-up records from the past season as well. That is, home teams with winning records from the prior season vs. road teams with losing records from the prior season are just 8-13 ATS in Week 1 NFL games since 1999.
Conclusion: Playoff teams from the prior year and in particular, home playoff teams, are overvalued in Week 1 NFL games.
Scoring defense and scoring offense
Do good defenses and for that matter good offenses from the prior season fare better against the number the following year in Week 1 games? Well, sort of. Generally speaking, teams with a solid offense or defense from the prior season tend to do well in the opening week so long as they are on the road. As a host, however, the best offenses and best defenses from the prior year tend to be overvalued in Week 1.
Consider that the top five scoring defenses (i.e. points allowed) from the prior season are a nice 8-4 ATS (66 percent) on the road in NFL openers the past five seasons. Meanwhile, the top five scoring defenses from the prior season are just 3-8-2 ATS (27 percent) as a host in Week 1 during the same time period.
There is no discernable advantage or disadvantage for teams with a top five scoring offense (i.e. points scored) in Week 1 games. However, when we look at scoring offenses from the bottom up (isolating the five worst offenses from the prior season), the results are rather interesting. In particular, teams ranked in the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are 9-4-1 ATS (69 percent) when on the road in Week 1.
The logic is simply that the public perception is a poor scoring offensive unit from the year prior will have little chance of winning on the road in Week 1. In turn, the oddsmakers compensate for this perception and these poor offensive teams from the year prior carry extra line value on the Week 1 trail.
Conclusion: Teams with top-ranked defenses from the previous season are good bets when playing on the road, but poor bets when playing at home. Also, teams ranked among the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are generally a good value in their Week 1 openers, provided they are playing on the road.
Scoring margin
An exceedingly straightforward way of measuring scoring offense and scoring defense together as a whole is to look at a team's “margin." Margin is simply scoring offense minus scoring defense, which is a fairly clear-cut measure of how a team does on both sides of the ball. Typically, the higher the margin, the better the team.
In this regard, it might seem counterintuitive that teams carrying the higher margin from the prior season in week one matchups are merely 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). Furthermore, road teams with the higher margin are 14-20-6 ATS (41 percent), while home teams with the higher margin are 17-22-1 ATS (44 percent). Once again, these results line up with the theory that better teams from the prior year are overvalued come opening day of the following season.
Conclusion: “Better” teams, which often boast a higher margin than their opponent, are overvalued the following season in NFL openers.
In sum
Oddsmakers cater NFL betting lines to match public perception and also to bait the public into poor bets. The temptation to use the prior year’s success as a buy sign for how a team will perform against the spread in Week 1 of the following season is an enormous trap.
The fact is, isolating road teams, road dogs, non-playoff teams vs. playoff teams, teams with a losing record or low margin vs. playoff teams or ones with a high margin from the previous year is where the line value resides. Quite simply, taking the road less traveled is your surest path to NFL betting profits.
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Who Makes the Sportsbook Betting Lines?
Las Vegas Sports Consultants (LVSC) is the world’s premier oddsmaking company and the most respected authority on making the lines. Mike Seba is a Senior Oddsmaker at LVSC and has been making lines for the last six years. In our extended interview, Seba explained that there are 4-5 oddsmakers assigned to make lines for each of the major sports (pro & college football and basketball; MLB, NHL, boxing, golf). Each of these oddsmakers bring unique opinions, strengths and weaknesses to the process. Oddsmakers at LVSC are professional sports junkies who love what they do and would probably do it for nothing if you asked them, but they do get paid for it. By necessity their approach is very research-oriented and concise, since with millions of dollars at risk there is little margin for error.
“You either have a passion for it or you don’t,” Seba said.
“The #1 thing for us is to make a line for each game that creates good two-way action. We do this by drawing from past experiences and applying them to current situations. People think it’s much more complicated, but it’s not. “
What are the Football Betting Lines Trying to Accomplish?
There is a common misconception that point spreads represent the oddsmakers’ prediction of how many points the favorite will win by. That is not the case at all – their intent is NOT to evenly split the ATS result between the teams; rather, their goal is to attract equal betting action on both sides. Stated another way, they want to create a line that half the people find appealing to bet one way while the other half find it appealing to bet the other way (known as ‘dividing the action’).
Divided action means the sportsbook is guaranteed a profit on the game because of the fee charged to the bettor (called juice or vig – typically $11 bet to win $10).
How the Opening Line Is Made
The opening line is the first line created by the oddsmakers, which is then sent out to sportsbooks. Of course there is an entire method to the madness on how the opening line is created. Seba explained that it all starts with each oddsmaker creating a line on each game based upon their own personal approach. This usually includes having up-to-date power ratings on each team.
Power ratings are the oddsmaker’s value of each team and are used as a guide to calculate a "preliminary" pointspread on an upcoming game. The power ratings are adjusted after each game a team plays. Examples of non-game factors that would require an adjustment to a team's power rating are key player injuries and player trades.
Once a game’s power rating based pointspread is determined, the oddsmaker will make adjustments to that line after considering each team's most recent games played and previous games played against that opponent. Also, adjustments are made after reading each team’s local newspapers to get a sense of what the coaches & players are thinking going into the game.
Since the oddsmaker’s ultimate goal is equally dividing the sports betting action, public perception and sportsbook betting patterns must be taken into account. For example, the public might have heavy betting interest week after week on a popular college football betting team such as USC. If an oddsmaker comes up with a preliminary line of USC -7, then an adjustment up to -7.5 or -8 would be made in response to the public’s expected USC bias.
The last step in the line-making process for each oddsmaker is taking one final look to determine whether or not the line "feels right." This is where common sense and past experience with how games are bet enters into the picture.
A round-table discussion among the 4-5 oddsmakers involved in making the line for each sport is then conducted and a consensus line is decided upon by the Odds Director before it is released to the sportsbooks. Of the 4-5 oddsmakers, generally the 2 most respected opinions are weighed more heavily by the Odds Director before he decides on the final line.
Once the opening line is released by LVSC, the individual sportsbooks decide if they want to make any adjustments before offering it to the public. Reasons for such adjustments include:
Experts working for the individual books having a strong opinion on the game
Individual books having players who consistently bet with certain tendencies (such as an extreme bias toward favorites or toward a certain popular team like USC)
The purpose of these adjustments, like all line adjustments, is to more equally divide the betting action.
Once betting begins, sportsbooks can adjust the line at any time. In doing so they attempt to make more attractive the team that is getting less action. By moving the line, sportsbooks can influence how the public bets on a particular game.
For example, if the pointspread on a game is 7 and most of the money is coming in on the underdog (taking the +7), sportsbooks will then move the number down to 6 ½ to try and attract money on the favorite.
Moving the line is the oddsmaker's effort to balance betting action, and often times such moves can have a major impact on a bettor’s decision. Oddsmakers can also change the line depending on various event-related factors such as player injuries or weather. Obviously, if the line comes out a week ahead of the event (which is the case in football), there is much that could happen during the week leading up to the event that could affect the line. Oddsmakers have to determine if any changes are necessary and send out an "adjusted line."
“The main objective is that our clients get equal action on both sides,” Seba said. “We’re not trying to pick the team that covers the spread, we’re trying to make it a coin flip, a tough decision (for the bettor). If we’ve done that, we’ve done our job.”
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Bonds nearly hits HR 751, SF wins
4 and drove in
a pair of runs, and Barry Bonds nearly hit homer No. 751 as San Francisco beat
1, in the middle contest of three at AT&T Park.
6) allowed five hits and one run over 6 2/3 innings, fanning
eight and walking three.
game slide.
Bonds, who came within five homers of Hank Aaron's record on Friday, went
1 with three walks, an RBI double and scored twice. The double ...
read more
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