Turf to Dirt Angle Works Best
Horseracing Betting Lines
03/09/2010 -
Philadelphia, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Both of Saturday's three-year-old
Kentucky Derby preps were won by horses that raced on the turf in their
previous start. One was favored at Aqueduct while the other was the sixth
choice in the betting at Santa Anita.
Awesome Act was favored in the Grade 3 Gotham Stakes despite not having raced
since November 7, 2009. His most recent effort was a fourth-place finish
in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf last November.
The chestnut colt came into the race with only a maiden turf victory under his
belt in six career starts. He also had never been on conventional dirt with
five grass races and one start on Polytrack in England.
Still, the public made him the 5-2 favorite in the 10-horse field and the
$240,000 yearling purchase did not disappoint winning by 1 1/4-lengths in 1:43
4/5 for the 1 1/16-miles.
The race, for all intents and purposes, was over approaching the top of the
stretch when jockey Julien Leparoux not only swept four-wide to confront the
early pacesetters, he also looked behind to see if any other horses would
present a challenge through the lane.
Only one, the second-place finisher Yawanna Twist, came within three-lengths
of the winner and the two colts combined for a $39.60 exacta, a very high
price considering they were the top two choices in the betting.
The race set up for the two closers after Wow Wow Wow stormed to the lead from
post 10, zipping the early fractions in 22 4/5 and 46 3/5 seconds - extremely
fast numbers for a two-turn, 1 1/16-mile race. In fact, the three horses that
were first, second and third after the first half-mile ended up eighth, sixth
and ninth, respectively.
For those fans quick to add Awesome Act to their Derby lists, don't forget the
fast early pace helped him immeasurably. In addition, not a single horse in
the field, including Awesome Act himself, had ever finished 'in the money' in
a graded stakes race. It's also hard to forget the fact that only one Gotham
winner has gone on to win the Kentucky Derby and that was the mighty
Secretariat.
On the positive side, it was his first career race on dirt and he seemed to
handle it with aplomb. Coming over from Europe and winning off the long layoff
was also impressive and his pedigree says 10 furlongs is easily attainable.
His sire Awesome Again won the 1998 Breeders' Cup Classic, while his dam,
Houdini's Honey, is a full sister to Coup de Genie, France's 1993 champion
two-year-old filly. Moreover, Houdini's Honey's half-brother Machiavellian,
sired Street Cry - the father of 07 Derby winner, Street Sense.
Is Awesome Act a Kentucky Derby-winning candidate? No question, but he also
must improve by leaps and bounds in the Wood Memorial to be taken seriously as
a legitimate contender. In addition, the field he'll face in four weeks will
be ten times better than the horses he beat last Saturday.
ALPHIE'S BET - THE RIGHT BET IN THE SHAM
If one was lucky enough to watch the replays of Alphie's Bet's previous three
races, then cashing in on his $19.00 win price in the Sham Stakes was like
taking candy from a baby.
The California-bred colt closed like a bandit in his second start (December 5,
2009) running his final furlong in 11 3/5 seconds. He finished fourth that
day, but trainer Alexis Barba thought so much of his performance she not only
stretched out the son of Tribal Rule to 1 1/16-miles, but placed him in the
$100,000 California Breeders' Challenge.
Dead last approaching the top of the stretch, Alphie's Bet swung out eight-
wide through the lane running his final 2 1/2 furlongs in 29 3/5 seconds to
get up for second. The winner was the undefeated Caracortado, who came right
back to take the Robert B. Lewis in his next start.
Sent off as the 6-5 favorite in his follow-up race, Alphie's Bet took to the
turf with a smashing 1 1/4-length last-to-first score after a slow start from
the gate. But it wasn't just the victory that solidified his reputation as a
solid closer it was the manner in which he overpowered the eight-horse field.
Mired in last place through the stretch and hung out to dry in the 10-path,
the bay colt unleashed his powerful strides through the lane to win going
away. The final time of 1:38 1/5 for the mile was not very imposing but
running his final furlong in 10 4/5 seconds was nothing short of incredible.
Two more signs that showed he was ready to run the race of his life came early
in the mornings of February 20 and 28. After four slow workouts between late
January and mid-February, Alphie's Bet burst out with a pair of bullet works
going six furlongs in 1:12 4/5 on the 20th and five furlongs in 1:00 flat
eight days later.
Still, the big question heading into the Sham was how he would be able to loop
a much stronger field in a race devoid of early speed. The answer? He didn't
have to!
After beginning all four of his prior races in either last or next-to-last
place, Alphie's Bet was sixth in the early going. In fact, he ran his first
half-mile in 48 2/5 - two full seconds (or 10 lengths) faster than his
previous two races!
Through the stretch, the Sham was his to lose after passing The Program and a
tiring Nextdoorneighbor. He eventually drew clew to win by 2 1/4-lengths over
the late closing Setsuko.
What was even more impressive than winning the Grade 3 event was the fact he
ran every quarter-mile in under 24 3/5 seconds. His final three furlongs was
clocked in 36 seconds flat, including a final 12-second eighth of a mile.
Tremendous numbers considering he was much closer to the pace this past
Saturday.
Alexis Barba, who also trained Make Music for Me to win the Pasadena Stakes on
the turf one race earlier, has not made any definite plans for Alphie's Bet's
next start. One race he won't be entered is the Santa Anita Derby since that
will be Make Music for Me's final Kentucky Derby prep.
HORSES TO WATCH
Three horses make the list this week, including Trappe Shot, a three-year-old
chestnut colt that will be turning heads as the year moves along.
Trained by Kiaran McLaughlin, the $850,000 yearling purchase pummeled a field
of 10 maidens last month by 10 1/4-lengths, running the six furlongs in a
solid 1:09 2/5 seconds.
Since Trappe Shot has only started once in 2010, it's doubtful he'll be on the
Kentucky Derby trail but he's one to watch down the road.
The two other horses are three-year-old fillies that ran last weekend at
Gulfstream Park.
Wicked Charm finished sixth in her debut on Sunday - a one mile maiden event
on the turf. She was 26-1 that day primarily due to her post position. It's
not easy to win from the 11 spot at one mile on the weeds due to the short run
to the first turn. She also broke slowly from the gate, compounding her
position.
Still, she closed strongly, running her final quarter in 23 4/5 to finish
sixth, beaten by only six lengths. The fact she was 26-1, along with her
sixth-place finish, might help getting decent odds in her next start. And by
the way, she's by Ghostzapper and a half-sister to English Channel - the 2007
Eclipse Award-winning male turf horse.
Apple Charlotte, the other three-year-old filly, finished second in Saturday's
Herecomesthebride Stakes at nine furlongs on the turf. She had a boatload of
trouble checking early in the race and then clipping the heels of Upperline at
the top of the stretch. Despite the tough trip, she closed stoutly for second,
missing the victory by less than a length.
THE NEW JEFF FRANK TOP 12
1) Dublin; 2) Super Saver; 3) Eskendereya; 4) Lookin At Lucky; 5) Alphie's
Bet; 6) Caracortado; 7) Awesome Act; 8) Odysseus; 9) Rule; 10) Stay Put; 11)
Connemara; 12) Uptowncharlybrown.
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MySportsbook.com: New College Football Clock Rules Examined
Coaches and bettors alike are desperate to make sense of the new time-keeping rules on the NCAA gridiron. One of the big stories to come out of the Ohio State-Texas clash last weekend was Texas coach Mack Brown's criticism of the NCAA's new clock rules that are intended to shorten the duration of college football games, therefore affecting college football betting.
"They scored with six minutes left and the game was over before we had a chance to do anything," Brown told ESPN.com. "I really hope whoever made these changes will go back and look them over."
Sure, it might be sour grapes; the Buckeyes thoroughly trounced the defending national champion Longhorns 24-7. However, Brown isn't alone in giving the changes their due thought. Bettors are also wondering about them, albeit for a completely different reason. Most experts agree that the changes will result in games being shortened by anywhere from 10 to 20 plays. The obvious consequence is lower scores, with more time rolling off the clock during changes of possession. (The Ohio State-Texas game flew well under the total of 52.)
According to research at the online sportsbook MySportsbook.com, more than 18 plays a game disappeared last weekend into thin air. That's a 10-percent reduction. In 2005, a typical game had 168.58 plays. For 2007 already, it's down to 150.26.
As a result, teams combined to gain an average of about 100 fewer yards a game last weekend versus the 2005 openers. Scoring was also down by about 4.5 points (attention Las Vegas sports lines).
Of course, oddsmakers were able to adjust to the changes before the season started. Proof of that came as the over went a balanced 8-9 at My Sportsbook on Saturday.
Other angles to consider:A shorter game should theoretically result in shorter lines. Whereas Team A might have been a 14-point favorite in a 168-play game (last year), if there are 10 percent less snaps in 2007, the line should also be reduced by 10 percent (to 13 or 12.5). Of course, this is an over-simplification of the matter, but something to keep in mind.
Less possessions means a better chance the game will be decided by three or seven points. For example, what might have been a 20-10 final score in 2005 may end at
17-10 in 2007. Granted, a 24-17 game last year might end at 21-17 these days, but the former - a three- or seven-point advantage being preserved as opposed to created - is the most likely scenario.
*UPDATE* - Sept. 25, 2007
New Clock Rules Boon for online bookmakers
By adjusting the time-keeping rules to shorten the duration of college football games, the NCAA hoped to make its product more enjoyable for the fans. While the NCAA's success in this regard is still up for debate, bookmakers couldn't be happier with the results.
"We are seeing a massive jump in college football betting," noted the MySportsbook.com management team. "With all the early Saturday games (12 a.m. ET) ending before the second wave begins (3:30 p.m. ET) - something that didn't always happen before the changes - bettors are now able to re-invest their winnings from the morning session in the afternoon games."
While not all bettors will choose to roll over their winnings, it doesn't take much for an impact to be seen on the bottom line. "Not all of the millions of dollars in morning payouts get re-bet. In fact, it's probably only 10 to 20 percent," noted the sportsbook management team. "Still, the increased football betting lines window will create a ton of growth for us over the course of the season."
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Bonds nearly hits HR 751, SF wins
4 and drove in
a pair of runs, and Barry Bonds nearly hit homer No. 751 as San Francisco beat
1, in the middle contest of three at AT&T Park.
6) allowed five hits and one run over 6 2/3 innings, fanning
eight and walking three.
game slide.
Bonds, who came within five homers of Hank Aaron's record on Friday, went
1 with three walks, an RBI double and scored twice. The double ...
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