Where do the Twins go from here?
Baseball Betting Lines
03/09/2010 -
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - You could almost hear a collective groan this morning, from
Minneapolis all the way down to Fort Myers, as the news began to circulate that
Minnesota Twins closer Joe Nathan could be lost for the season because of a
torn ligament in his pitching elbow.
Outside of someone named Joe Mauer, Nathan is probably the most irreplaceable
player on the Minnesota roster. Quite frankly, you can make the argument that
Nathan is the more vital piece to the Twins' puzzle than the reigning American
League Most Valuable Player.
The bad news started for the Twins over the weekend, when Nathan experienced
tightness in his elbow after facing just one batter in an exhibition game
against the Boston Red Sox.
He then left Florida and traveled back to Minnesota for tests, which revealed
the tear. The team is going to get a second opinion, but once swelling in the
elbow subsides, Nathan, in all likelihood, will have to undergo dreaded Tommy
John surgery.
So where do the Twins go from here? With Nathan in the mix they were a heavy
favorite to once again win the AL Central. Now, not so much.
I mean, how exactly do you replace a guy who in the last five years has saved
more games than any other closer in baseball? It is impossible, you can't,
especially if you are the Twins.
There are closers out there for the taking. Cleveland's Kerry Wood and
Cincinnati's Francisco Cordero ring a bell right off the bat. The problem
there, of course, is that while the Twins could probably pull off a deal, they
are paying Nathan $11.25 million this season.
Can you really see them shelling out an additional $10+ million for the closer
position? It is not going to happen.
San Diego's Heath Bell could also probably be had. He only makes about $4
million this season, but the Twins would have to unload the farm for him.
There is an intriguing option out there for Ron Gardenhire, and he does not
have to look very far to find it. That option is lefty Francisco Liriano, who
by all accounts has looked about as good this past winter as at any time since
undergoing his own Tommy John surgery following the 2006 season.
Down in the Dominican, Liriano was throwing his fastball in the mid-90s along
with a "filthy" slider. Minnesota had high hopes for him finally living up to
that world of potential he flashed in the 2006 campaign, when he went 12-3 and
drew comparisons to Johan Santana.
Quite simply, the Twins were counting on him being their ace this season.
I had already pegged Liriano as the key to the Twins' season before I heard
the awful news on Nathan. Now, it is even more apparent that he will make or
break the Twins this season. If they decide to keep him in rotation, there is
an even bigger need for him to be an ace. And if they move him to the pen,
well, all this worrying today could be rendered moot.
Of course, I am not sure that Liriano can handle it from a physical standpoint.
It has been over three years since his own surgery, and unlike other pitchers
who have had it, he has never really been the same.
Actually, he has regressed.
If he is physically up to the task, though, he is the Twins' best option from
an in-house standpoint. But then again, if they move him, could Minnesota get
by with a rotation of Carl Pavano, Nick Blackburn, Kevin Slowey, Glen Perkins
and Brian Duensing?
That is not great, but it is not awful either. The Twins were a favorite to
win the division even before people knew what they were going to get from
Liriano. Not having him in the rotation may not hurt them, simply because he
was such an unknown.
Early on, it would be a struggle for Liriano to go on back-to-back nights, but
the Twins do have a former closer on their roster in right-hander Jon
Rauch, who saved 17 games for the Washington Nationals in 2008. Rauch is the
perfect guy to ease Liriano into an everyday role.
While it sounds easy enough to convert Liriano, Minnesota may not want to mess
with him any further, especially on such short notice. We are just under a
month away from the start of the season. I am not sure they can get his arm
into that kind of shape just yet. He would need a little extra conditioning in
Fort Myers.
But like I said, Rauch should be able to hold down the fort until Liriano is
ready.
I know it is more important to have a dominating ace than a closer, but
Liriano hasn't come close to being the pitcher he was before the surgery. Who
knows if he ever will be again? I say make the move now.
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The 2009 AP NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year odds have been released and Denver Broncos' running back Knowshon Moreno has been made the opening favorite.
Bet NFL Sports Lines
Moreno was selected in the first round of April's NFL draft and is expected to carry the rushing load for the Broncos this season. And with Jay Cutler now in Chicago, Moreno might be expected to be Denver's entire offense.
Betting Lines from sports betting lines have made Moreno a 5/2 favorite to win this year's Offensive Rookie of the Year Award. Fellow running back Chris “Beanie” Wells (Arizona Cardinals) is right behind Moreno at 7/2, while Donald Brown (Indianapolis Colts) and receiver Michael Crabtree (San Francisco 49ers) are 5/1 to win. Quarterbacks Mark Sanchez (New York Jets) and Matthew Stafford (Detroit Lions) are 7/1 and 8/1, respectively.
A couple of players who present some value are Josh Freeman, Shonn Green and Darrius Heyward-Bey.
Freeman needs to beat out Byron Leftwich to become the starting quarterback of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers but if he does, he has a lot or raw talent and could use the weapons around him (i.e. Kellen Winslow Jr. and Antonio Bryant) to be very successful in his first season.
Green enters a crowded backfield in New York, but considering both Thomas Jones and Leon Washington are unhappy about their contract situations and might holdout, the former Iowa product could become the Jets' primary back.
Everyone was shocked when Al Davis took Heyward-Bey with the eighth overall pick in April's draft, but the kid has a tremendous amount of talent and if quarterback JaMarcus Russell takes the next step this year, the former Maryland product could blossom. Plus, Heyward-Bey will be looking to prove the people wrong who said Oakland should have taken Michael Crabtree with the No. 8 pick.
And if you're looking for a deep sleeper, check out Pat White at 30/1. He enters the Miami Dolphins vaunted “Wild Cat” offense and could be a big time playmaker.
For complete odds on the 2009 AP NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year odds, see below.
2009 AP NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year Odds to Win
Ramses Barden (NYG) 40/1
Andre Brown (NYG) 20/1
Donald Brown (IND) 5/1
Kenny Britt (TEN) 20/1
Glenn Coffee (SFO) 30/1
Chase Coffman (CIN) 50/1
Michael Crabtree (SFO) 5/1
Josh Freeman (TB) 14/1
Shonn Green (NYJ) 14/1
Percy Harvin (MIN) 10/1
Darrius Heyward-Bay (OAK) 18/1
Juaquan Iglesias (CHI) 30/1
Cornelius Ingram (PHI) 50/1
Rashad Jennings (JAC) 30/1
Johnny Knox (CHI) 40/1
Jeremy Maclin (PHI) 18/1
Mohamed Massaquoi (CLE) 30/1
LeSean McCoy (PHI) 12/1
Knowshon Moreno (DEN) 5/2
Hakeem Nicks (NYG) 18/1
Brandon Pettigrew (DET) 30/1
Brian Robiskie (CLE) 20/1
Mark Sanchez (NYJ) 7/1
Matthew Stafford (DET) 8/1
Jason Smith (STL) 40/1
Mike Thomas (JAC) 25/1
Patrick Turner (MIA) 50/1
Mike Wallace (PIT) 50/1
Chris Wells (ARI) 7/2
Pat White (MIA) 30/1
Field (Any Other Player) 9/1
Betting Line
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Big 12 Conference betting odds
Work left to do: Texas Tech, Oklahoma State, Kansas State
 Texas joins Texas A&M and Kansas as locks after getting league win No. 11. Texas Tech greatly helped its own hopes and crippled OK State's with the two-point win Saturday. Is K-State the last reasonable hopeful? Could be an elimination match in Stillwater on Tuesday, at least for the Cowboys.
Work left to do:
Texas Tech [18-11 (7-7), RPI: 44, SOS: 12] A critical two-point win over OK State leaves the Red Raiders with Baylor and at Iowa State left. Get both and the Red Raiders likely are good to go. Get one and there could be some interesting comparisons with a K-State team that could finish two or three games "ahead" of them in the standings but doesn't have any of the quality wins Texas Tech has. Not a lot in nonconference play (against Arkansas in Little Rock being the best win, by far) to lean on.
Oklahoma State [18-9 (5-8), RPI: 50, SOS: 35] Still without a road win, the Cowboys now need to win two on the road just to get to .500 in conference play. It's hard to recall a team (OK, other than Clemson) falling so precipitously from lock status to almost certainly out of the NCAAs at this point. There are wins to be had in the last three, including a very big home game against K-State on Tuesday, but this team is reeling. Can you tell the pressure to win is getting to them with the way the final possession played out at Texas Tech? There are some good nonconference performances to lean on, specifically beating Missouri State and Syracuse on neutral floors and Pitt in OK City, but if the Pokes don't right this very, very soon, that won't be enough.
Kansas State [20-9 (9-5), RPI: 56, SOS: 96] It pays to be in the Big 12 North. The nine league wins are Colorado (twice), Missouri (twice), Iowa State (twice), Baylor, Nebraska and (a good one against) Texas. That helps explain the middling computer profile. The win over USC is nice, but the nonconference leaves a lot to be desired. The game at OK State in Stillwater on Tuesday is huge, as it could KO the Cowboys and leave K-State with a home date against Oklahoma with which to work.
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Bonds nearly hits HR 751, SF wins
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a pair of runs, and Barry Bonds nearly hit homer No. 751 as San Francisco beat
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6) allowed five hits and one run over 6 2/3 innings, fanning
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